1Q20 EARNINGS: A CHECK LIST IN THE TIMES OF COVID-19

According to a report UBS recently published, the discrepancy between analysts’ estimates for listed companies’ profit and price target is the greatest seen over the past 20 years. But this should come as little surprise, given the significant uncertainty related to when we may approach some semblance of normality again. Will it be a U, V or W curve? In this context how can we provide accurate estimates of results? Traditional year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter comparisons may be a consideration, but are not sufficient as we look to reporting requirements throughout 2020.

What are the metrics that will provide evidence of a management team focused not only on surviving the current crisis, but looking to the medium and long term sustainability? According to the Disclosure Guidance Topic No. 9 issued by the SEC, each company’s challenge will be to release information to help investors assess the current scenario and the impact of COVID 19 from the vantage point of senior management.

To assist companies with the upcoming earnings period and the new investor focus, InspIR Group prepared a checklist to be considered when preparing the earnings release materials. We hope it helps

• business continuity
• SAC availability
• ability to solve problems
• news distribution channels
• marketing initiatives (client retention/prospects)
• offline x online
• delivery/logistics issues
• price/discount negotiation
• innovation in serving clients due to the pandemic
• contractual issues

• working from home
• functions that cannot work from home
• protecting health and safety
• health and safety campaigns
• negotiations of labor contracts
• advanced vacations
• salary reductions, including temporary postponement of partial salary
• temporary furloughs
• benefits for home-office structure
• additional benefits for employees that remain working
• employee communications
• testing of COVID-19
• commitment not to layoff, at least for a pre-determined period
• salary reductions among senior management/board
• possible layoffs

• continuity of critical services that rely on third parties
• business interruption
• availability of supplies
• delays in delivery of supplies
• renegotiation of contracts
• changes in payment terms

• cancelation or postponement of general meetings
• offering of virtual meetings, including general, NDRs and one-on-ones
• cancelation or postponement of dividend payments
• insider buying/selling
• maintain or suspend buyback programs
• access to capital/new issuances

• definition of essential activities
• adhesion to government programs
• use of government tax incentives
• suspension, reduction or deferred taxes
• concession agreements

• drawdown of available credit lines
• access to new credit lines
• renegotiation of credit terms
• postponement of financing payments
• debt covenants
• cost of capital
• impacts on credit ratings
• effect from potential downgrades

• share prices and volumes
• coverage impacts
• transparency/proactivity
• IR & management accessibility
• corporate governance and compliance measures

• donations
• re-purposing production capacity to support the pandemic (such as PPEs)
• support for families of employees
• voluntary work and other social programs
• communication of efforts to help during the pandemic

OPERATIONAL AND FINANCIAL INFORMATION

• demand for products and services
• impacts of commodity price volatility
• impacts of exchange rates variation
• discounts and promotions

• closing of plants
• closing of stores
• closing of distribution centers
• closing sales booths
• inventory availability
• loss of inventories and/or perishable supplies
• efficiency measures adopted

• loss of finished products
• raw materials
• transportation disruption, internal and for clients
• alternate delivery methods
• innovation on the supply chain front

• cost of business disruption
• impacts of exchange rates variation
• non-recurring costs related to COVID-19
• deferring taxes
• hedging policies

• reducing expenses
• % of fixed vs. variable expenses
• non-recurring costs related to COVID-19
• legal expenses

• collections/payments policies
• cash and cash equivalents
• credit availability
• renegotiation of receivable terms with customers
• renegotiation of payable terms with suppliers

• defining priority projects
• disclosing maintenance capex
• reduction/deferral of capex expenses
• increase in capex related to special initiatives to increase revenue

• current maturities
• extending short-term maturities
• renegotiation of debt costs
• need for new issuances

• credit risks
• business disruption risks
• reputational risks
• cybersecurity risks
• brand risks
• senior management as a risk group of COVID-19
• risks related to legal and regulatory response
• refinancing risk

• delays in construction and roll-out of new facilities (plants, offices, stores) or in new product launches
• redesign of internationalization footprint
• canceling or postponement of new issuances (bonds, follow-ons, IP
• canceling plans of acquisitions, expansions or entering new markets
• new potential opportunities in M&A and updates on ongoing deals
• de-risking measures across asset portfolios

• how to balance demands of all stakeholders during a pandemic?
• suspension of current and/or new sustainability projects
• reputational enhancement/risks
• attention to social washing

• definition of committees to handle crisis
• impact of travel ban on business
• insurance – business interruption coverage
• update forward looking statements and disclaimers

• withdrawing or maintaining guidance – if issuing, give assumptions and expectations upon which guidance was based
• Q1 Proforma without COVID-19 impact
• 2H20 possible scenarios; sensitivity analysis; quarterly approach vs. full-year figures